Thursday, February 12, 2009

Dow Theory Non-Confirmation


Since the inception of this bear market in October of 2007 the Dow Industrial Transportation Index has been one of the primary leading indicators for traders.

That fact still rings true - except it appears to be flashing a preliminary buy signal.

Since January the Transports have signaled a Dow Theory Non-Confirmation - meaning the Transports have made a new low, but the overall index has yet to confirm. The longer this signal transpires without confirmation, the more bullish it is for the markets. These are typically signals that indicate the markets are getting ready to change script and traders should prepare accordingly. Today the Transports flipped bullish in the P&F chart. Granted the P&F charts have been flipping all over the place in the past few months, but the Transports have primarily remained in a bearish posture - until today. There are some big ifs here - but if the Transports start galloping and the banks find a bid, you just may see some light in this otherwise damp and dark tunnel.
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