My Last Rule

A wise and successful trader reserves his last rule as the exception to them. I am stealing that play from the book and letting this position run (long the S&P). My trading intuition has been good lately - just early. Unfortunately, if your time horizons are narrow - you can miss the meat of the move. Granted, I am familiar with the dark alternative.

I think the long side has quite a bit more meat here. It's counter-intuitive, I like that.

Other things I like:

- The Yen's bounce seems wasted and technically weak
- New lows continue to recede
- Volatility is on the cusp of breaking below transition (see previous post)
- The BKX may have successfully tested the November lows today - They may begin to lead ( however whimsically)
- Treasury yields have been rising
- Credit markets improving dramatically (see FCT)
- Higher highs and higher lows in the equity market
- "V" bottom thesis due to intermediate low and not "The" low
- Obama
- History - Closest historical parallels (1873 & 1929 autumn crash lows) retraced 50-60% of the market losses and ran into April and May time frame.

Things that worry me:

-Low Volume
-The BKX may be getting ready to go over the edge (see P&L chart)
-Striking similarity to 2002-2003 technical framework (going 50-100pts below 850 on retest - No V bottom)
-Congress
-Dennis Kneale