Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Gold Miner's Update



I am still reluctant to buy the gold miner's here. They have had tremendous gains of late, however, they were from extremely oversold levels. Many of the best and the brightest are recommending buying them here. Most notably, Bob Hoye, is quite bullish on the miner's. The parallel being a post bubble equity market deflationary collapse like the 1930's in which the gold miner's were one of the only areas of the market that significantly outperformed over the next ten to twenty years.

Who am I to go against the grain of Mr. Hoye, but I am sticking to the game plan in which the final liquidation low is still in the future. That being the case, the miner's have more room to fall. Perhaps the October low's are the left shoulder of a yet to be completed inverted H&S. Scary to think that things could liquidate much further, however, the forward looking proxies such as the BKX or the eurodollar index (eurobonds denominated in dollars) indicated that there's still more room for downside. Lot's of it.
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