Still Running In Place

Comments from the Blogosphere:

jason Says:

November 13th, 2008 at 6:31 pm

An interesting post on the MarketSci Blog showing Dow daily percentage returns with standard deviation going back 1 year. Chart is 1928 - 2008. The current percentage upswings (over 10%) have only been seen in one prior period (1928-1933). Our down swings have not reached those of 1987 or 1928-1933 (percentage changes over 10%) but are beyond the down swings of any other time since 1928.

http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2008/11/13/when-does-this-ride-end/

Today reminds me of wind sprints. Run to the touch line, just touch, return to the starting touch line back again. I don’t see how a bottom can be so precise. I need some sideways action.

Jurgen Says:

November 13th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
We had all the classic signs of the bottom:

1. False breakdown
2. Heavy buying after the fake and heavy volume (the highest within 2 weeks)
3. Closing near the high of the day

Spice it up with seasonality and historic proportions pessimism and panic, successful re-testing of October lows and hitting 2002-03 market lows territory, signs of a major buying thrust, historic low intraday TICK of 2000 and a quick flip in breadth… Voila! It is the bottom.

What is next?

According to history, we should get a 20-25% S&P 500 rally over the next 2-3 months (remember, the best ever short-term market gains were made during the bear rallies of 1930s)

Andy Tabbo Says:

Wild action today… Here’s what I’m stuck with technically speaking…The larger degree fourth wave that began on October 10th is not yet complete.

One of the most difficult challenges for shorts is to stay short during a fourth wave congestion. The role of the fourth wave is to CONFUSE shorts into covering shorts. Here’s the count I have after today’s bear BBQ…
Starting on 10/10…

839 to 1044 = A wave
1044 to 845 = small A wave in B
845 to 1007 = small B wave in B
1007 to 818 = small C wave in B wave for an a=c in %
818 begins a very sharp C wave similar to the 839-1044 move.

Targets are 945 for .618 A = C or 1022 for a full A = C

There’s a more bearish case that requires the SP500 to peak and reverse hard before 925, but that’s not my main case at this point.

There is no such thing as a triple bottom. If this turns out to be a triple bottom, then I’ll eat a lot of crow right here….

I think this was a “Sell the rumor” of hedge fund redemptions in front Nov. 15th deadline and now we’re “Buying the fact”…..

I remain flat and on the sidelines looking for more short covering higher.